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70. Hawley (1981a, p. 48); Metcalf (1975, p. 69). This amounts to what the French after World
War II would call indicative planning.
71. Barber (1985, pp. 15–22).
72. Hawley (1981a, pp. 64–65); Leuchtenburg (2009, pp. 61–62).
73. Hoover (1952b, p. 42).
74. Holcombe (2002, p. 195).
75. Brownlee (2016, pp. 117–19).
76. Brown (1956); Chandler (1970, pp. 139–40); Fishback (2010).
77. Ford (1926, p. 9).
78. Filene (1923, p. 411).
79. Foster and Catchings (1928); Hobson (1930).
80. Taylor and Selgin (1999, p. 448).
81. New York Times, November 22, 1929, p. 1; Washington Post, November 22, 1929, p. 1.
82. Hoover (1952b, pp. 43–44).
83. New York Times, November 22, 1929, p. 1.
84. Yeager (1956). I am indebted to the lucid exposition of this idea by George Selgin in his
introduction to Yeager (1997, pp. xv–xvi). 85. Hawtrey (1947, p. 140).
602 Notes to Chapter 6
86. Eichengreen (2002).
87. Hoover (1952b, p. 30). Mellon was far from alone in this view. “When he lectured on the economy at Harvard in the midst of the depression,” recalled Robert Heilbroner, “Joseph Schumpeter strode into the lecture hall, and divesting himself of his European cloak, he an- nounced to the started class in his Viennese accent, ‘Chentlemen, you are vorried about the depression. You should not be. For capitalism, a depression is a good cold douche.’ Having been one of those startled listeners, I can testify that the great majority of us did not know that a douche was a shower” (Heilbroner 1999, p. 291).
88. Leijonhufvud (1968, pp. 75–81).
89. Yeager (1997, p. xvi).
90. Garrett (1952, p. 16). By 1931, Ford had reduced the highest wage back down to $6. Aver-
age employment at Ford had been more than 100,000 in 1929; by 1932 it was little more than 56,000 (Nevins and Hill 1957, p. 588).
91. Margo (1993, p. 43).
92. O’Brien (1989a, pp. 719–20).
93. Jensen (1989, p. 558).
94. Rose (2010).
95. Even Alfred P. Sloan was a believer. “We must pay higher wages to stimulate purchasing
power,” he wrote in his first autobiography (1941a, p. 193). “We must reduce prices to stimulate consumption,” he quickly and more sensibly added.
96. Margo (1993, p. 44), citing unpublished work by Stanley Lebergott. 97. Chandler (1970, p. 39).
98. Jensen (1989, p. 558).
99. Libecap (1998).
100. Irwin (2017, pp. 371–410).
101. “I am told that never before in history have so many economists been able to agree upon anything,” said Franklin Roosevelt to an audience in St. Paul, Minnesota on April 18, 1932.
102. Steel (1980, p. 288).
103. Irwin (2017, p. 390).
104. Madsen (2001).
105. Hoover (1952b, p. 48).
106. Leuchtenburg (2009, p. 128). 107. Norpoth (2019).
108. McGirr (2016, p. 5).
109. Okrent (2010, p. 26).
110. Okrent (2010, p. 98).
111. Miron and Zwiebel (1991)
112. A teetotaler wasn’t someone who drank tea in preference to spirits. It was someone who
believed in abstinence—or prohibition—totally with a capital T.
113. Gordon (2016, p. 314).
114. Fisher (1927). The sobriety of the American workforce, still to make itself fully felt, was
one of the reasons Fisher had been so bullish on the stock market. In fact, however, such benefits were almost certainly illusory on the aggregate level, and local company-sponsored temperance programs were more effective (Gordon 2016, p. 314). Present-day research, which takes into
Notes to Chapter 6 603
account the endogeneity of alcohol consumption, tends to find that returns are higher to moder- ate drinkers than to those who abstain completely (MacDonald and Shields 2001).
115. Okrent (2010, p. 39). He matched at a rate of 10 percent.
116. Geisst (1997, p. 166). Prohibition had destroyed some $150 million worth of British as- sets in the American liquor industry, in some of which Churchill had personally had a stake.
117. McGirr (2016, p. 237).
118. Okrent (2010, p. 350). He had already cut off funding to the ASL by 1926. Rockefeller himself pointedly did not drink. Indeed, in 1933 the Rockefeller family ordered removed the socialist-realist mural it had commissioned from Diego Rivera for the lobby of the RCA Build- ing in Rockefeller Center, then under construction, because the mural depicted Rockefeller Jr. with a martini in hand. Of course, it didn’t help that Rivera’s hero, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, was also prominently depicted. “Rockefellers Ban Lenin in RCA Mural and Dismiss Rivera,” New York Times, May 10, 1933, p. 1.
119. Leuchtenburg (2009, p. 95). 120. Okrent (2010, p. 350).
121. Schlesinger (1957, p. 99). 122. Shannon (1948, p. 466). 123. Wicker (1996, pp. 110–29). 124. Wigmore (1987).
125. Chandler (1970, p. 59).
126. Wigmore (1987, p. 747).
127. Kennedy (1999, p. 466).
128. After the inauguration, the Board did begin to enforce interdistrict rediscounting. 129. Wicker (1996, p. 128).
130. The bill was in fact written by George Harrison and officials from the Hoover treasury department, including Arthur Ballantine, who would stay on as undersecretary in the Roosevelt administration. “The emergency banking bill represented Roosevelt’s stamp of approval for decisions made by Hoover’s fiscal advisors” (Leuchtenburg 1963, p. 43). The bill also called for the issue of what were derisively called “greenbacks”: bank notes that looked like ordinary Federal Reserve Notes but included fine print specifying that they were not redeemable in gold (Edwards 2018, p. 38).
131. This account of devaluation and the abrogation of the gold clauses follows Edwards (2018).
132. The amendments also authorized the printing of greenbacks to pay off federal debt and made some gestures toward monetizing silver.
133. Edwards (2018, pp. 208–13).
134. John Maynard Keynes, “From Keynes to Roosevelt: our Recovery Plan Assayed,” New York Times, December 31, 1933, section 8, p. 2.
135. Taylor and Neumann (2016, p. 54).
136. Temin and Wigmore (1990);
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